They Live

Like something out of a John Carpenter movie, airport screeners in Singapore are screening for signs of the live H1N1 virus . The World Health Organization has Asia and Europe on heavy alert. But who can say for sure when it will all unfold?


Some would say this pandemic tracking isn't exactly an exact science, but I think different. It can be effectively tracked, only, if the information is exact and not being skewed by irresponsible reporting of the facts.

The Mexican government is the chief culprit in the faulty reporting. The reported number of real cases coming out of Mexico are of major concern being that they are ground zero for the virus. At best the reporting is sloppy, at worst, deceptive. If Mexico reports an epidemic of apocalyptic proportions the government stands to gain (monetary) support from the world over but trade and tourism will lose more than whatever gains are made. If it under reports the toll of H1N1 and this virus becomes truly apocalyptic, it will compromise it's global reputation, a timely financial gain and the concern of the world in response to the deaths of their countrymen. No wonder.

The media major-domos come a close second to this hyper-reporting. The fourth estate seems to be 'all over this' but what effect will they have if the headline story is no longer. Will we think it's all over? You may insert the 'boy who cried wolf' analogy here. There are better ways to report the story without the grand alert-alert sound effects and 'man on the street' type reporting which only speaks to the public's perceptions and not the formative facts.

The third in the line of guilt is the WHO itself. The World Health Organization either knows something the rest of us don't or their "Shock Room" is in shock and in CYA mode. By the time of this writing the WHO has raised their alert level again and while it is good to be prepared 'alert overload' does desensitize a population. Equally, if it is under reported or irresponsibly reported and the virus does get out of control people may refuse to accept the gravity of the event; in all cases though, the real danger may lie in a delayed out break. Public perception will be worse if the virus resurfaces in sixty days.

Now, it has only been a week since this pestilence was first reported and I have my beliefs. I haven't fully discounted that it may be, no kidding, a poorly bio-designed virus brought through Mexico. After all, let us not forget that the virus has a swine, bird, human component or that this is a virus cooked in the west and not in the east as viruses often do. I suspect though that by the end of the month it will amount to nothing more than a mild 1968 Hong Kong Flu and not as critical as the 1918 Spanish Flu. For me to believe that it is a virus of epic proportions it has to out rank the yearly flu that kills a minimum of 100 people per day. A resurfacing of the virus in sixty days or later this year concerns me more in that we may be psychologically immune.

By then we will know for sure if this was a bio lab 'break out' or a real virus out break. We'll also know by then whether to call it H1N1 or N1H1 or something else.